Avoided Emissions

Last Updated: 2025-03-03

Avoided emissions are the greenhouse gas emissions that are prevented from being released into the atmosphere as a result of a project or activity. This can be achieved through the implementation of sustainable practices, technologies, or policies that reduce or eliminate the production of greenhouse gases. Avoided emissions are an important metric for understanding the environmental impact of a project and can help to quantify the benefits of sustainable practices.

See our list of tracked methodologies as they develop.

Visualizing Avoided Emissions

There are many ways to visualize avoided emissions. One method is to represent total baseline emissions as the area of a rectangle, with height equal to GHG emissions intensity and width equal to market size, where avoided emissions come from the area of the rectangle that is missing when the solution technology is introduced.

Total baseline emissions can be visualized as the area of a rectangle with height equal to GHG emissions intensity and width equal to market size.

The first step in forecasting avoided emissions is to estimate the total emissions for a market served by a conventional technology. The total baseline emissions can be calculated as the GHG emissions intensity of the conventional technology (for example, in units of kg CO2e/kg Li) multiplied by the total market size (annual Li production in kg). We can visualize this as the area of the grey square with a height equal to the GHG emissions intensity and the width equal to the market size:

Baseline emissions can be visualized as the area of a rectangle with height equal to GHG emissions intensity and width equal to market size.

When a climate solution with a lower GHG emissions intensity is introduced into the market and displaces the conventional technology, the area of the new shape represents the total emissions of the market with the solution. The avoided emissions is represented by the area that is missing when compared to the baseline:

When a climate solution technology is introduced, avoided emissions are represented by the difference in area.

Factors that Determine Avoided Emissions

We can use this visualization to understand the key factors that determine the amount of avoided emissions that can be achieved by a climate solution technology. The avoided emissions can be calculated as the product of two parameters: the per unit impact and the market uptake of the solution technology:

Avoided emissions are determined by per unit impact and market uptake of the solution technology.

Per Unit Impact

The per unit impact is the difference between the solution technology GHG emissions intensity and the conventional technology GHG emissions intensity; this is represented by the difference in height between the conventional technology (gray) and solution technology (green) rectangles.

When the GHG emissions intensity of the solution technology is lower, the per unit impact is higher, and more emissions are avoided by the solution technology:

Lower GHG emissions intensity of the solution technology leads to higher per unit impact.

Market Uptake

The market uptake is the amount of the market size that is displaced by the solution technology, and is represented by the width of the solution technology (green) rectangle.

As shown in the animation below, increasing the market uptake of a climate solution technology increases avoided emissions:

Greater market uptake of the solution technology increases avoided emissions.

In Koi, you can see

a detailed breakdown of this parameter in the Per Unit Impact tab, including the value chain associated with the solution technology and the conventional technology
a detailed breakdown of the market capture in the Projected Market Uptake tab

Baseline Factors

There are two more factors that determine the amount of avoided emissions, and they both have to do with the baseline: baseline GHG emissions intensity and baseline market size.

If the GHG emissions intensity of the baseline is lower, then the calculated avoided emissions will be lower (and vice versa):

A lower baseline GHG emissions intensity results in lower avoided emissions.

If the baseline market size is lower, and we assume a similar percentage of the market is captured by the solution technology, then the avoided emissions will be lower (and vice versa):

A smaller baseline market size leads to lower avoided emissions, assuming similar market capture percentage.

Takeaway

There are four main approaches to maximize the avoided emissions due to a climate solution technology:

	Focus on the climate solution	Focus on the baseline
Increase the per unit impact of a solution	Decrease the GHG emissions intensity of the solution technology. For example, this could be achieved by increasing the energy efficiency of the solution technology.	Introduce the solution technology to a baseline market where the conventional technology has a high GHG emissions intensity, therefore increasing the Per Unit Impact. For example, this could be achieved by focusing efforts on applications of the solution technology in sectors with high GHG emissions intensity.
Increase the market uptake of a solution	Increase the market capture of the solution technology. The more the solution technology is adopted, the greater the avoided emissions.	Introduce the solution technology to a large baseline market. A very niche market will most likely not have high emissions to begin with, and the solution technology will be less impactful.